"Is Predictive Shooting a thing in Psi-Wars?"

I have a great community on my Discord (you can find the link in the Psi-Wars Index!) that often asks interesting questions, sometimes in itemized lists (which is very convenient).  These often lead to all sorts of interesting improvements in Psi-Wars, but one was posed to me recently that's both the sort of question I dread to answer, and one that I've been thinking on for awhile: "Is predictive shooting a thing in Psi-Wars?"

It's also a question I've been thinking on a lot.  Whenever I give my Backers the option to pick which template the focus on next, the Frontier Marshal usually does very well, and last time, it won! I keep pondering why my Backers like the Frontier Marshal so much: it's the "ranger" and "survivalist" of the setting, which doesn't strike me as the sort of thing that Psi-Wars fans would be crazy about, but "space sheriff" is something, like the Maradonian Space Knight, that Psi-Wars has and Star Wars doesn't. But I also think it's because they'd very much like to see "Gun Fu," so I've been working on that behind the scenes for a bit. And you can't really look at Gun Fu without thinking about "Predictive Shooting" and "Ranged Feints."

What is Predictive Shooting?

While I think Predictive Shooting comes up in a few places, my preferred reference for Psi-Wars is Gun Fu, because with a few exceptions, most Psi-Wars shootists aren't much bothered by realism.  Here, the rules can be found on page 11... and 12.

Essentially, Predictive Shooting is a Deceptive Attack with a gun, and it only reduces Dodge.

There's another interesting rule: Ranged Feint.  The idea here is that you "fake-out" your opponent and then make a Feint with a Gun roll; this penalizes all defenses, just like any feint.

So What's the Problem?

Seems simple enough, and there's a valid use case here. If space knights have absurd defenses against ranged attacks, shouldn't elite shootists have a way around those defenses? That would seem to be the point of playing an elite shootist.  Plus, ranged attacks have so many penalties anyway, how often will it come up?

The problem is this: we're running an ultra-tech game that's meant to feature a lot of melee. We want, as much as possible, to keep combatants on the "Same stage."  We want to avoid the "Sniper kills the Jedi from a mile away" problem, because if combat is effective at extreme distances, then melee doesn't happen and the "Jedi" archetype is useless.  The more advantages we give to ranged fighters, the more that diminishes the role of melee.  Thus, we have to be cautious.

Let me lay out what I mean.

The Generic TL 11 Commando vs the Generic TL 11 Space Knight

To outline where this is a problem, let me step away from Psi-Wars for a second and explore generic GURPS rules.  If we presume that the Space Knight has Precognitive Parry-16 and Force Sword-18, a Basic Speed of 6.0 and Combat Reflexes, we're looking at a parry of 13 and a Dodge of 10.  For our Commando, let's assume a Beam Weapons (Rifle)-18.

We'll set the fight 100 yards apart, "too far" for a proper "on the same stage" encounter: it would take the Space Knight ~15 turns of sprinting to reach the Commando.  We'll give the Space Knight their vaunted force sword, and we'll give the Commando a Blaster Rifle.  We'll make it even worse: he'll get a targeting computer and we'll use the sight it comes with.  Assuming the Space Knight is standing still, the Commando has a -10 to hit him; if the Space Knight is running full speed at the Commando (sprinting 7 yards per second), then the Space Knight still has -10 to hit him for about 5 seconds; if the Space Knight is tumbling, then the Commando has an additional -2 (per Action) or -3 (per Martial Arts).  So the worst the commando can expect to see is -13.

The Commando aims for 1 turn: this grants him a +10.  He already has a +2 from the targeting computer. He can take two more turns to aim further giving him a +4 (+2 from additional aiming, +2 from the scope). We could add +3 if we had a radar system that target locked the space knight, but we'll skip that, I only mention it to point out that "it gets worse." Thus, our final modifier is +3: we have a +10 from acc, +4 from aiming with a scope, +2 from a targeting computer, and -10 for range and -3 for speed. Thus, we'll hit on a 21 or less. We can reduce that to a 13 or less with Predictive Shooting to apply a -4 to the Space Knight's Dodge.  Thus, we'll hit ~84% of the time (a D20 equivalent of a 17 or less) and our Space Knight will dodge ~10% of the time. 

On average, we'll actually hit with all 3 shots; remember, you defend against as many attacks as your margin of victory with your dodge roll +1 (that is, one attack on an exact success), which means to Dodge all three shots, the Space Knight must roll a 4 or less; a critical success.  Because of the multiple shots, even his parry is reduced: he needs to roll an 11 or less to defend against all 3 shots.

An X-Ray laser is even more horrifying: it has an accuracy of 12, which buffs our Commando up to a base of 23 to hit, and has an ROF of 10, which buffs our attack to a further 25, which means we can reduce the dodge to 4 or less... but a better tactic would be to reduce our attack to a 19 or less (-3 to Dodge) and attack with full RoF 10. On average, this will hit all 10 times (rcl 1). To dodge all 10 shots, our space knight... needs a critical success (a roll of a 5 will only dodge 3 shots), and to parry all 10 shots requires... a critical success (a roll of 5 will parry only 9 shots).

This illustrates a few of the problems with default GURPS Ultra-Tech and predictive shooting.  First, the accuracy values on Ultra-Tech weapons are so through the roof that you're gaining an enormous advantage over any melee opponent.  Second, rcl is so low that you're better off not using Predictive Shooting.  A single predictive shot applies a -2 to your skill per -1 you apply to the enemy attack.  Just saturating them with rcl 1 fire, on the other hand, applies an effective -1 to defense for every effective -1 to attack. It doesn't quite work out that way: firing multiple predictive shots reduces the ability to defend against all of the attacks, while just saturating your opponent with fire means they'll probably defend against more of the attacks, but are less likely to defend against all, so there's ultimately an idea "break point" that's somewhere in the middle, typically reducing your attack to just the point where you'll average as many hits as you can get, and thus maximizing both the number of hits and the defense penalty.

It also highlights something else: Predictive Shots only penalizes Dodge, and Space Knights defend with Parry (or possibly Block, if they're using a particular Pyramid Article).  Thus, we quickly see that with "RAW GURPS" predictive shots is of marginal utility against a space knight.  In a sense, it actually increases the utility of the space knight, as a precognitive defense allows a solid, unpenalized defense against an tactic that primarily undermines Dodge.

But what about Ranged Feints? Well, to be honest, I'm not sure how this works, but a strict reading suggests that when you aim, you apply all the benefits of the aim, so our Commando is "Feinting" with a skill of 21 or less (this will average a -3 to the target's defense); Presumably, the benefits of the aim are lost if you feint and then attack, but "Shoot 'Em Up" on page 12 of Gun Fu suggests you can divide your ROF between the two, so we can make an All-Out Feint and fire one shot as a feint, and then the other two as an attack: thus, we feint at 21 (average -3 to the target's defense) and then attack with a predictive shot.  Our opponent will parry on a 10 or less (though needs 8 or less to parry all the attacks). The laser is even worse.

It says the target has to be "aware" of the character for this to work, but how does that make sense? I mean, obviously, you have to see them, but if you see someone's scope glinting on the horizon, is that really sufficient for them to fake you out? Of course, they suffer range penalties, so the farther away you are, the less effective your feint will be, but how does the scope and targeting computer help you feint, exactly?

A Psi-Wars Commando vs a Psi-Wars Space Knight

A lot of things I use above were already problems before we even began to talk about predictive shooting and ranged feints, and Psi-Wars has already greatly diminished the accuracy of weapons, increased their recoiled and removed (or at least greatly limited) things like targeting computers.  Thus, our commando in Psi-Wars would have only a +6 accuracy, +2 from their scope, and nothing else.  This would give them a +10 vs their -13 to hit (though -12 is more accuracy). Thus, on average they'll hit on a 16 or less, and if they attack with Rcl 2, they need a margin of at least 4 to hit with all three shots. Psi-Wars doesn't use rapid-fire lasers.

This greatly reduces the effectiveness of a Predictive Shot, but the increased Rcl makes the viability of a predictive shot much better: for every -2 you accept, your opponent suffers a -1 to dodge, but every 2 you beat your roll buy increases the margin of difficult to dodge all shots by 1. This creates a more interesting trade-off.  With high-rcl plasma, you're definitely better off just making predictive shots, rather than relying on ROF, though we should probably disallow combining targeting an area and predictive shooting.

What about the ranged feint?  Well, we're looking at an effective skill of 16, which will generally fail to penetrate the target's defenses. So that also seems relatively harmless.

Under these circumstances, our Psi-Wars shootist would need to be much more effective to make solid use of these tactics, but they do provide value.  That's not that surprising, though, because most of the Psi-Wars house rules on ranged weapons are to bring them in line with TL 7-8 weapons, which is the target audience of Gun Fu, while allowing the Space Knight to enjoy the full benefits of a TL 11 defense.  It should be noted that of the two, only Ranged Feints are reasonably useful against a Space Knight.

Conclusion

Yes, Predictive Shooting and Ranged Feints are acceptable in Psi-Wars.  The rest of the house rules eliminate what makes Ultra-Tech so brutally absurd when it comes to ranged combat, which means that we can allow Gun-Fu to push a skilled shootists talents up a bit.

I would like to propose some House Rules on Ranged Feints, both in an effort to "reduce the stage" on which the fight takes place, and to make it simpler and a little more reasonable:

• Ranged Feints use their Gun skill of the Shootist with the following modifiers: +3 if they aimed, and the RoF bonuses of the attack. Ignore range, Acc, scope, etc.
• Ranged Feints require the Shootist to be within 20 yards of the target.

This is a little arbitrary, but let me explain.  While we can definitely make the case for an All-Out (Feint) distracting a target by shooting the terrain and then the target and this would be treated like normal shooting, by rolling the unmodified Gun skill of the target, this becomes a pure contest of skill against skill, which is more in line with how melee weapons work.  The +3 for Aiming brings it in line with an Evaluate before the attack, and RoF gives a benefit to "leading the attack" and makes the All Out (Feint) a little more interesting in how you divide your RoF.

The 20-yards rule is one I've been using a lot in Psi-Wars: I've been cutting off a lot of Psi-Wars psychic effects and other ranged elements at around 20 yards. This has become my "standard encounter range," the "stage" of combat.  A GM might allow a little bit more range than this, but in general, if you're on a single battle mat and your character is "reasonably close" to the target, it's rarely more than about 20 yards.  That also means that a springing speed 6 character can reach the target it about 3 rounds.  It feels more local.